The Regents鈥� Medal for Excellence in Research is awarded by the University of Hawaiʻi Board of Regents in recognition of scholarly contributions that expand the boundaries of knowledge and enrich the lives of students and the community.

Sloan Coats

Sloan Coats is an assistant professor in the Department of Earth Sciences and an affiliate of the International Pacific Research Center at the 糖心Vlog官方 惭腻苍辞补 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology. Coats joined 糖心Vlog官方 惭腻苍辞补 in November 2019, after holding postdoctoral and positions at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, as well as faculty roles at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

His research combines advanced statistical techniques, climate models and both observed and paleoclimatic data to investigate climate variability and change across timescales. A key aspect of Coats鈥檚 work is its interdisciplinary nature, reflected in his contributions to diverse fields such as glaciology and seismology.

In addition to his research, Coats is a passionate advocate for the broader research community at 糖心Vlog官方. He co-directs the NSF-funded Earth Sciences on Volcanic Islands Research Experiences for Undergraduates program, which provides undergraduate students with hands-on research experience in Earth sciences.

Matthieu Dubarry

Matthieu Dubarry is an associate researcher at the Hawaiʻi Natural Energy Institute (HNEI) in the 糖心Vlog官方 惭腻苍辞补 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology. With more than 20 years of experience in renewable energy, he specializes in lithium-ion battery research.

He joined HNEI in 2005 as a postdoctoral fellow, analyzing the usage data from a fleet of electric vehicles. He was appointed to the faculty in 2010, where he has focused on battery testing, modeling and simulation.

Since 2014, Dubarry has led his own research group, supported by funding from federal agencies and industry partners. He is recognized for pioneering data-driven techniques to non-destructively assess lithium-ion battery degradation.

His work has produced a suite of software tools for predicting battery lifespan at both the cell and pack levels. His diagnostic model, ʻalawa鈥攏amed for the Hawaiian word meaning “to diagnose with insight鈥濃�攈as earned global recognition and is used by universities and companies around the world.

Rick Kazman

Rick Kazman is the Danny and Elsa Lui Distinguished Professor of Information Technology Management at the 糖心Vlog官方 惭腻苍辞补 Shidler College of Business. His research focuses on software architecture, analysis tools and technical debt. He helped develop several influential methods and tools, including the Architecture Tradeoff Analysis Method, Titan and DV8, which are widely used to evaluate and improve the structure and maintainability of software systems.

Kazman has authored more than 250 publications, holds three patents and has written nine books, including Software Architecture in Practice, Technical Debt: How to Find It and Fix It and Designing Software Architectures: A Practical Approach. His work has been widely adopted by Fortune 1000 companies and cited more than 30,000 times, according to Google Scholar.

A leading figure in his field, Kazman currently serves on the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Computer Society鈥檚 Board of Governors. His contributions continue to shape industry best practices and advance the discipline of software engineering.

Klaus Wyrtki, a pioneering oceanographer and former professor at the University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补, has been honored by the Hawaiʻi State Legislature for his groundbreaking contributions to oceanography and climate science. Wyrtki, who died in 2013, was a leading expert in ocean circulation and its impact on global climate patterns.

The certificate recognizing Wyrtki鈥檚 legacy was presented on March 12, to his widow, Erika Wyrtki, by her extended family during a symposium dedicated to his scientific achievements. The three-day event, from March 12 to 14, at the East-West Center, gathered leading researchers to discuss Wyrtki鈥檚 enduring influence on the field.

“Dr. Wyrtki鈥檚 work laid the foundation for much of what we understand today about ocean currents and climate variability,” said conference chair Malte Stuecker, director of the and associate professor in the in the 糖心Vlog官方 惭腻苍辞补 . “It is a privilege to bring together scholars from around the world to celebrate together with the Wyrtki family his contributions.”

The marked the 50th anniversary of two milestone events in early El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research that Wyrtki helped pioneer. In 1975, he published, , which shaped modern ENSO studies. That same year, he led the El Niño Watch Expedition, the first attempt to verify an El Niño forecast using the Southern Oscillation Index. The symposium brought together experts to reflect on these achievements and discuss the future of ENSO research.

Three University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补 projects in the fields of climate and physics research have each been . These projects are among 39 nationwide that have been awarded a total of $36 million in funding by the DOE via the .

Global warming in the Pacific

Associate Professor Malte Stuecker from the 糖心Vlog官方 惭腻苍辞补 and in the was awarded $991,795 over the next four years to examine how greenhouse gas-induced global warming affects the tropical Pacific, with a focus on the differential warming between eastern and western regions.

Understanding this pattern is crucial for both predicting by how much the Earth will warm overall as well as predicting many climate change impacts, including tropical cyclone risks for Hawaiʻi and other Pacific islands. The study investigates how El Niño and La Niña events, which cause significant temperature and wind fluctuations in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, can help reduce uncertainties in long-term warming patterns. The research involves collaboration with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and analyzes ocean and atmospheric processes during these events.

“This project aims to reduce the remaining uncertainties in the future warming pattern in the Pacific,” Stuecker said. “This information is critically needed to guide climate change adaptation across the Pacific including Hawaiʻi.”

Free-electron laser

Siqi Li, an assistant professor in the 糖心Vlog官方 惭腻苍辞补 , has been awarded $994,320 over the next four years to study how electrons and light interact in a free-electron laser (FEL), a device that makes light when electrons move through alternating magnets.

The FEL at 糖心Vlog官方 惭腻苍辞补 makes infrared light, which is useful for many things such as studying molecules, medical imaging and communications. Li will also use machine learning to improve the ability to control electrons. Li and her team are working with experts from the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory to develop their program and machine learning tools.

“This project will position 糖心Vlog官方 as a key player in accelerator and beam physics,” Li said. “The collaboration with SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory will further enhance research efforts, bringing in students and researchers across different fields, and boosting the university鈥檚 role in scientific innovation and workforce development.”

Gaseous detectors

Assistant Professor Peter Lewis from the 糖心Vlog官方 惭腻苍辞补 Department of Physics and Astronomy has been awarded $906,897 to further investigate gaseous detectors that can detect particles in various fields, from dark matter research to particle physics. InGrid sensors offer superior performance in measuring charge in gasses. This project, a collaboration between 糖心Vlog官方 and Lawrence Berkeley Lab, aims to create advanced InGrid sensors.

Lewis鈥� goals are to achieve optimal performance and establish U.S.-based production capabilities, currently limited to Europe. The project, named FIMS (Flexible, Ideal MPGD System), combines advanced manufacturing and AI techniques. This research is crucial as it could lead to breakthroughs in understanding dark matter and fundamental physics, potentially revolutionizing our knowledge of the universe and enabling new technologies.

“This is exactly the sort of project that made me want to be a physicist,” Lewis said. “It will require creativity, collaboration, and cutting-edge technology, and it has plenty of opportunities for students to make a real and lasting impact.”

Department of Physics and Astronomy Chair and Professor Veronica Bindi added, “These exceptional young faculty members secured substantial grants within their first year, showcasing their initiative and boosting our research capacity. Their rapid success highlights the high-caliber talent we鈥檙e cultivating in our Department of Physics and Astronomy.”

An associate professor at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa was honored for his significant contributions to Earth and space science with the from the American Geophysical Union (AGU). As part of the award, he will also become an AGU Fellow.

Malte Stuecker鈥檚 research is on the dynamics, predictability and impacts of climate variability and projected climate change, with an emphasis on the Indo-Pacific region. “I am very grateful to receive this recognition. I am thankful for my mentors, postdocs, students, and colleagues who make up a research community that is exciting, challenging, and fun,” said Stuecker, who is appointed in the and the in the (SOEST). “It is a privilege to conduct research that I am passionate about and to be part of this community.”

It is a privilege to conduct research that I am passionate about and to be part of this community.

Stuecker joins a distinguished group of scientists, leaders and communicators recognized by AGU for advancing science. Each honoree reflects AGU‘s vision for a thriving, sustainable and equitable future supported by scientific discovery, innovation and action.

Stuecker earned degrees from the Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg in Germany as well as from 糖心Vlog官方 Mānoa. Prior to his current appointment in SOEST, he was an assistant project leader at the IBS Center for Climate Physics in South Korea and a NOAA Climate & Global Change postdoctoral fellow at the University of Washington in Seattle.

AGU honorees will be recognized at AGU24, which will convene more than 25,000 attendees from more than 100 countries in Washington, D.C. and online in December. The AGU announcement highlights that “these honorees have transformed our understanding of the world, impacted our everyday lives, improved our communities and contributed to solutions for a sustainable future.”

The Regents鈥� Medal for Excellence in Research is awarded by the University of Hawaiʻi Board of Regents in recognition of scholarly contributions that expand the boundaries of knowledge and enrich the lives of students and the community.

Benjamin Shappee

Benjamin Shappee is an astronomer at the Institute for Astronomy. He specializes in transients and time-domain astronomy. Shappee is a founding member of one of the most successful time-domain projects, the All-Sky Automated Survey for Super-Novae (ASAS–SN), which uses telescopes around the globe to survey the entire sky daily.

The ASAS–SN survey paper (Shappee et al. 2014) is the 50th most-cited paper in astronomy in the past decade. Shappee is co-principal investigator of the largest near-infrared supernova survey to date, the Hawaiʻi Supernova Flows, using the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope on Maunakea.

He and his group have made important contributions to our understanding of the origins of supernovae (exploding stars), stellar flares with potential impact on the habitability of nearby planets, and outbursts from supermassive black holes. ASAS–SN found the most luminous supernova yet discovered (ASASSN-15lh). Shappee was also part of the team that discovered the first and only counterpart to gravitational wave source from the merger of two neutron stars. He has authored 275 publications and has 20,000 citations.

Malte Stuecker

Malte Stuecker is an assistant professor in oceanography at the International Pacific Research Center in the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology. Stuecker鈥檚 research is on climate variability and climate change in the past, present and future.

Much of his work is centered on the Pacific Ocean and phenomena such as the El Ni帽o-Southern Oscillation. Stuecker earned a PhD in meteorology from 糖心Vlog官方 Mānoa in 2015. He returned to 糖心Vlog官方 as faculty in 2020, and was previously an assistant project leader/research professor at the IBS Center for Climate Physics in South Korea.

Stuecker received the IAPSO Early Career Scientist Medal in Physical Oceanography in 2023, the Kamide Lecture Award from the AOGS Atmospheric Sciences section in 2020, and the Outstanding Young Scientist Award from the EGU Climate: Past, Present & Future division in 2016. In 2018, he was a Future Leaders Program Fellow of the Science and Technology in Society forum in Kyoto (Japan), and in 2022 he received an NSF CAREER Award.

Donald Womack

Donald Reid Womack is a professor of music in the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa College of Arts, Languages & Letters. A faculty member at 糖心Vlog官方 since 1994, Womack chairs the music department, and is faculty in Japanese and Korean Studies.

He is the composer of more than 100 original works, which have been performed and broadcast in 25 countries and recorded on more than a dozen releases in the U.S., Korea and Japan. Ensembles around the globe have performed his works, including the Tokyo Metropolitan Symphony, Russia Ulan Ude Symphony, Hawaii Symphony, National Orchestra of Korea, among many others.

Womack is the recipient of the Guggenheim Fellowship, two Fulbright Fellowships, two Artist Fellowships from the State of Hawaiʻi, and won numerous other national and international competitions. Widely recognized as a leader in intercultural composition, he integrates East Asian and western instruments. He has lectured on his work in Korea, Taiwan and Japan, and taught as visiting faculty at Seoul National University.

As part of global ocean circulation, warm water in the upper layer flows from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Archipelago. The flow through the archipelago, known as the Indonesian Throughflow, is neither a steady one nor a single stream as it navigates through the various seas, straits and passages.

A team of researchers that investigated the role eddies play in determining the path and transit times through this major sea area鈥攄ynamics that ultimately influence the climate of the region. The researchers represent the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Tohoku University, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kyushu University and the National Research and Innovation Agency of Indonesia.

Because of their warm surface temperature, the seas in the Indonesian Archipelago are an area where deep convection in the atmosphere develops, which is the heart of the overall atmospheric circulation in the tropics. The behavior of the Indonesian Throughflow is considered to be a factor that determines the sea surface temperature in the region, which is influential for climate phenomena such as El Niño events.

M. Riza Iskander, the lead author of the study, spent many months at the at 糖心Vlog官方 Mānoa (SOEST) as part of the Tohoku University-糖心Vlog官方 jointly supervised graduate student program. While at SOEST, Iskander, ocean modeling specialist Yanli Jia, and oceanography professor Kelvin Richards, along with their co-authors, used a high-resolution ocean general circulation model to track simulated particles in the fluid flow of the Indonesian Throughflow and noted where and when the water properties change.

Influence on Indonesian current

They explored the role that flow variability plays in the Indonesian Throughflow pathway and its transit time through the major seas. The effects vary considerably depending on the route. In the Sulawesi Sea, flow fluctuations are large, seawater circulates over a wide area for an extended period, and rises from the middle to near the surface, causing significant changes in water properties due to turbulent mixing. On the other hand, in the Banda Sea, fluctuations of the current are slight, and the influence of eddies on the Indonesian current is negligible.

As global warming progresses, the Indonesian Throughflow is also expected to change. Such changes may alter water temperatures in the Indonesian Archipelago and Indian Ocean, modulate El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Phenomena, affecting local weather. In the future, the research team would like to clarify how the eddy effects on the path and residence time of the Indonesian Throughflow, are linked to water temperature in these areas, and thereby contribute to improving the accuracy of future projections.

The North Pacific “Garbage Patch” aggregates an abundance of floating sea creatures, as well as the plastic waste it has become infamous for, according to a study published in and co-authored by oceanographers in the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (SOEST).

Marine surface-dwelling organisms, such as jellies, snails, barnacles and crustaceans, are a critical ecological link between diverse ecosystems, the study authors wrote, but very little is known about where these organisms are found. Plastic pollution provides a clue: the oceanographic forces that concentrate buoyant man-made waste and pollutants in “garbage patches,” may also aggregate floating life.

There are five main oceanic gyres—vortexes of water where multiple ocean currents meet鈥攐f which the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre is the largest. It is also known as the North Pacific “Garbage Patch,” because converging ocean currents have concentrated large amounts of plastic waste there.

The researchers leveraged an 80-day, long-distance swim by through the gyre in 2019, dubbed The Vortex Swim. To investigate these floating lifeforms, the sailing crew accompanying the expedition collected samples of surface sea creatures and plastic waste. The expedition鈥檚 route was planned using computer simulations developed by SOEST oceanographers, Nikolai Maximenko and Jan Hafner, which simulate ocean surface currents to predict areas with high concentrations of marine debris.

“Surface currents are the most complex part of ocean dynamics,” said Maximenko, who is a senior researcher in the at SOEST. “The model, which had been successfully used previously to simulate trans-Pacific drift of debris generated by the 2011 tsunami in Japan, now helps us to understand the role that ocean currents play in sustaining the pelagic ecosystem.”

The expedition team collected daily samples of floating life and waste in the eastern part of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, and the researchers found that sea creatures were more abundant inside the gyre than on the periphery. The occurrence of plastic waste was positively correlated with the abundance of three groups of floating sea creatures: by-the-wind sailors (Velella sp), blue buttons (Porpita sp) and violet snails (Janthina sp).

The same ocean currents that concentrate plastic waste in oceanic gyres may be vital to the life cycles of floating marine organisms, by bringing them together to feed and mate, the authors say. However, human activities could negatively impact these high sea meeting grounds and the wildlife that depends on them.

“The ‘garbage patch’ is more than just a garbage patch,” said Rebecca Helm, assistant professor at the Earth Commons Institute at Georgetown University and lead author of the study. “It is an ecosystem, not because of the plastic, but in spite of it.”

Two pioneers of climate research share this year鈥檚 Nobel Prize in Physics, both with ties to the (IPRC) and the (SOEST) at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa. Klaus Hasselmann and Syukuro “Suki” Manabe were by the “for the physical modelling of Earth鈥檚 climate, quantifying variability and reliably predicting global warming.”

More on Manabe

Over his long and distinguished career, Manabe has made key contributions to understanding the processes controlling the variation of Earth鈥檚 climate and to the development of the computational tools for climate modelling. In a , the award committee praised Manabe鈥檚 numerical demonstration to the world that increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere lead to increased temperatures at the surface of the Earth.

“Manabe鈥檚 work launched the field of computer modeling of climate, and he was the pioneer in modeling the coupling of the atmospheric climate and circulation to the ocean, the land surface and the cryosphere,” said Kevin Hamilton, SOEST emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences and retired director of IPRC.

Manabe spent most of his career with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Princeton University, but in 1997 he returned to his native Japan where he headed the Global Warming Research Program for the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) 1997–2001. This period also saw the 1997 establishment of IPRC at 糖心Vlog官方 Mānoa by JAMSTEC as a Japan-U.S. collaborative center to advance research in understanding and modelling climate variability and climate change in the Asia-Pacific region.

In 2005, Manabe to share two scientific presentations with the 糖心Vlog官方 community. Then, in 2009, he to further discuss climate modeling issues with faculty, staff and students. During the visit Manabe and IPRC outreach specialist Gisela Speidel finalized a dealing with Manabe鈥檚 career for the American Meteorological Society Oral Histories Project. The IPRC continues in its third decade as a unique Japan-U.S. collaboration for climate research and is a focus for climate science at 糖心Vlog官方.

More on Hasselmann

, professor emeritus at the University of Hamburg and founding director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, developed the fundamental theory that explains how slow temperature variations in the oceans are related to day-to-day variations of the weather in the atmosphere.

“This theory has become one of the cornerstones of modern climate science and is a foundation for much of the research conducted at IPRC,” said Malte Stuecker, assistant professor of oceanography at SOEST and IPRC. “It has been widely applied in multiple fields, ranging from climate physics to terrestrial and marine ecosystems.”

His work was fundamental to the detection of the “fingerprint” of human-induced climate change in the presence of natural variability. In addition, Hasselmann was instrumental in advancing climate model development and computations in Germany. Furthermore, he advised the doctoral dissertations of SOEST alumni Axel Timmermann and Peter Müller.

A lasting scientific impact

The powerful statement issued in the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred,” would not have been possible without the climate models that Manabe and the statistical methods that Hasselmann helped to pioneer.

Climate research is an example of 糖心Vlog官方 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 goal of Excellence in Research: Advancing the Research and Creative Work Enterprise (PDF), one of four goals identified in the 2015–25 Strategic Plan (PDF), updated in December 2020.

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A graduate student is the first Pacific Islander to voyage to the deepest part of the Earth, the Mariana Trench, and its deepest region, the Challenger Deep (35,827 feet), on March 11, 2021.

Nicole Yamase, a PhD candidate in the 糖心Vlog官方 Mānoa , explored the Western pool of the Challenger Deep with Victor Vescovo, a deep-ocean explorer and multi-world record holder, making this the third dive ever to this location. Yamase was also the first marine botanist, youngest female and third woman to ever visit Challenger Deep.

“I couldn鈥檛 believe my eyes when I saw the fine silt bottom of the Challenger Deep through the small window. We were hovering 2 meters off the ground,” said Yamase. “This was the moment I was preparing for and it was finally here. All I could think about was how proud my ancestors and the whole Pacific Island community would be.”

“I hope this experience inspires other young Pacific Islanders to pursue STEM fields and higher education, so that they can serve as role models for the next generations,” added Yamase.

This event is an example of 糖心Vlog官方 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 goal of (PDF), one of four goals identified in the (PDF), updated in December 2020.

10-hour expedition

Because the Challenger Deep is located in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) ocean territory for the Federated States of Micronesia, Yamase was nominated by the Micronesia Conservation Trust in partnership with the Waitt Institute to represent her country.

Vescovo, owner of the 224-foot research vessel DSSV Pressure Drop and the only commercially certified submersible that is capable of reaching any ocean depth multiple times, piloted the two-person submersible to the Challenger Deep. Four hours after leaving the surface, Yamase and Vescovo made it to the bottom and spent 2 hours exploring the eastern part of the pool, an area no human, to their knowledge, has ever been before. Then they took another 4-hour ride back up to the surface, spending a total of 10 hours underwater.

Yamase brought down a few personal items, one being a hand-size model canoe that belongs to her father, Dennis Yamase, who is a 糖心Vlog官方 Mānoa alum. The canoe represented her father being her first inspiration to pursue undergraduate and now graduate studies in marine biology. Yamase reflected, “I鈥檝e identified as a Micronesian. The canoe also represents my mother鈥檚 family from Pohnpei and Chuuk. She instilled in all her children the values of respect for others, our traditional culture and my natural surroundings, as well as an appreciation for our diverse background.”

Shallow reefs connect to deep ocean

Yamase鈥檚 research focuses on shallow-water communities, specifically macroalgae鈥攖he foundation of the food web. Some of the energy that supported life in Challenger Deep may have been contributed by dead plant material that has made its way to the bottom via marine snow, a shower of organic material falling from upper waters to the deep ocean.

“And now I could see, quite literally how these reefs in the Federated States of Micronesia are connected with the deepest place on Earth,” added Yamase.

After seeing debris (tethers) at the bottom of the ocean, this pushes Yamase to finish her degree and be a part of organizations that help protect the full reef from shallow waters to deep ocean.

“Yamase鈥檚 inspiring voyage to the Challenger Deep is a once-in-a-lifetime journey to a place that less than 20 people visited before in human history,” said Malte Stuecker, an assistant professor at 糖心Vlog官方 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 Department of Oceanography and . “In addition to being an explorer, Nicole is currently finishing her graduate studies in marine biology and working as a teaching assistant for the ‘Sustainability in a Changing World’ class offered in the Oceanography Department.”

The impact of sea surface temperature variations in the tropical Pacific on global climate has long been recognized. For example, the episodic warming of the tropical Pacific during El Ni帽o events causes melt of sea ice in far-reaching parts of the Southern Ocean via its effect on the global atmospheric circulation. , by an international team including University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Assistant Professor Malte Stuecker from the and , published in Science Advances demonstrates that the opposite pathway exists as well.

Using a hierarchy of climate model simulations, the authors demonstrate the physical pathways through which polar climate variations can affect the trade winds in the tropics.

“Climate signals can propagate from the polar regions to the tropics either via the atmosphere or the ocean,” explained Stuecker. “Our climate model simulations were designed to investigate the relative role of these pathways and whether their importance differs for perturbations originating from the North pole or the South pole.”

Anomalous cooling

The authors found that in the most complex model simulations, which include realistic representations of the ocean, atmosphere, land processes, and sea ice, an anomalous cooling in either hemisphere leads to a strengthening of the tropical trade winds.

Lead author Sarah Kang from the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology in South Korea explained the reasoning behind these experiments. “One of the largest sources of uncertainty in the current generation of climate models are biases in the representation of clouds over the cold Southern Ocean. We wanted to explore what effect too much reflection of solar radiation by these clouds to outer space might have on global climate. In addition, large emissions of aerosols in the late 20th century due to industrial activity in the Northern Hemisphere from North America, Europe and Asia resulted in a slight, temporary reduction of the global warming rate that is due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions,” she said.

According to the authors鈥� results, both of these effects could potentially explain why the Pacific trade winds were anomalously strong in recent decades.

The model experiments developed by the authors can be used to further explore two-way interactions between the tropics and polar regions both for future climate projections as well as for interpreting reconstructions of climate states in the geological past.

–By Marcie Grabowski

Correctly simulating ocean current variations hundreds of feet below the ocean surface—the so-called Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent—during El Niño events is key in reducing the uncertainty of predictions of future warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. That was revealed in a new study led by researchers and .

Trade winds and temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean experience large changes from year-to-year due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, affecting weather patterns across the globe. For example, if the tropical Pacific is warmer and trade winds are weaker than usual—an El Niño event—flooding in California typically occurs and monsoons in India and East Asia are detrimental to local rice production. In contrast, during a La Niña, the global weather patterns reverse with cooler temperatures and stronger trade winds in the tropical Pacific.

In Hawaiʻi, during El Niño there is usually less winter rainfall, larger surf on the north shore, and a higher chance for tropical cyclones threatening the islands. During La Ni帽a, we typically see the reversed pattern for Hawaiʻi. These natural climate swings affect ecosystems, fisheries, agriculture and many other aspects of human society.

Computer models that are used for projecting future climates correctly predict global warming due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as short-term year-to-year natural climate variations associated with El Niño and La Niña.

“There is, however, some model discrepancy on how much the tropical Pacific will warm,” said Malte Stuecker, co-author and assistant professor in the and International Pacific Research Center at 糖心Vlog官方 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 (SOEST).

Model simulations

Researchers have been working for decades to reduce the persistent model uncertainties in tropical Pacific warming projections.

Many climate models simulate El Niño and La Niña events of similar intensity. In nature, however, the warming associated with El Niño events tends to be stronger than the cooling associated with La Niña. In other words, while in most models El Niño and La Niña are symmetric, they are asymmetric in nature.

In the study, scientists analyzed observational data and numerous climate model simulations and found that when the models simulate the subsurface ocean current variations more accurately, the simulated asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña increases—becoming more like what is seen in nature.

“Identifying the models that simulate these processes associated with El Niño and La Niña correctly in the current climate can help us reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections,” said corresponding lead author Michiya Hayashi, a research associate at the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, and a former postdoctoral researcher at 糖心Vlog官方 Mānoa. “Only one-third of all climate models can reproduce the strength of the subsurface current and associated ocean temperature variations realistically.”

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–By Marcie Grabowski

To assess factors affecting the intensity and duration of droughts in Hawaiʻi and U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology鈥檚 (IPRC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) secured more than $500,000 from NOAA鈥檚 Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program. The funding would also be used to develop seasonal predictions of rainfall, including floods and droughts.

Droughts reduce soil moisture which impacts agriculture and food security; and drought-related heat has caused dry vegetation to ignite grass fires. Historic droughts, for example in 1998 and 2016 in American Samoa, have led to water rationing, emergency shipment of drinking water and health concerns.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation undoubtedly impacts drought conditions, however, during unprecedented persistence of droughts recently, it has become clear there are other factors that require investigation.

During the three years of the award, IPRC senior researcher Hariharasubramanian (Anna) Annamalai, Arun Kumar with the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA, Maryland, and John Marra, director of Climate Services for the Pacific Islands at NOAA, Honolulu, will build on the seasonal predictions of rainfall, floods and droughts in Hawaiʻi and USAPI that they have been working on for more than a decade.

“In consultation with local stakeholders, there is a need in the Insular Pacific to identify precursors to monitor and predict the severity and persistence of droughts,” said Annamalai.

To make this research relevant to communities, the level at which the drought or flooding become noteworthy is based on specific stakeholder-relevant thresholds.

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–By Marcie Grabowski

A ringing bell vibrates simultaneously at a low-pitched fundamental tone and at many higher-pitched overtones, producing a pleasant musical sound. , published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, by scientists at the and Kyoto University, shows that the Earth’s entire atmosphere vibrates in an analogous manner, in a striking confirmation of theories developed by physicists over the last two centuries.

In the case of the atmosphere, the “music” comes not as a sound we could hear, but in the form of large-scale waves of atmospheric pressure spanning the globe and traveling around the equator, some moving east-to-west and others west-to-east. Each of these waves is a resonant vibration of the global atmosphere, analogous to one of the resonant pitches of a bell.

The basic understanding of these atmospheric resonances began with seminal insights at the beginning of the 19th century by one of history鈥檚 greatest scientists, the French physicist and mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace. Research by physicists over the subsequent two centuries refined the theory and led to detailed predictions of the wave frequencies that should be present in the atmosphere. However, the actual detection of such waves in the real world has lagged behind the theory.

Detecting wave modes

In the study, Takatoshi Sakazaki, an assistant professor at the Kyoto University Graduate School of Science, and Kevin Hamilton, an emeritus professor in 糖心Vlog官方 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 and the , present a detailed analysis of observed atmospheric pressure over the globe every hour for 38 years. The results clearly revealed the presence of dozens of the predicted wave modes.

The study focused particularly on waves with periods between 2 hours and 33 hours which travel horizontally through the atmosphere, moving around the globe at great speeds (exceeding 700 miles per hour). This sets up a characteristic “chequerboard” pattern of high and low pressure associated with these waves as they propagate (see animated image).

“For these rapidly moving wave modes, our observed frequencies and global patterns match those theoretically predicted very well,” said Sakazaki, lead author of the study. “It is exciting to see the vision of Laplace and other pioneering physicists so completely validated after two centuries.”

But this discovery does not mean their work is done.

“Our identification of so many modes in real data shows that the atmosphere is indeed ringing like a bell,” said Hamilton, co-author of the study. “This finally resolves a longstanding and classic issue in atmospheric science, but it also opens a new avenue of research to understand both the processes that excite the waves and the processes that act to damp the waves.”

So let the atmospheric music play on!

El Niño events cause serious shifts in weather patterns across the globe, and an important question that scientists have sought to answer is: how will climate change affect the generation of strong El Niño events?

by a team of international climate researchers led by Bin Wang of the University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补 International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), answers that question. Results show that since the late 1970鈥檚, climate change effects have shifted the El Niño onset location from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and caused more frequent extreme El Niño events. Continued warming over the western Pacific warm pool promises conditions that will trigger more extreme events in the future.

The team examined details of 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017, evaluating for each event the onset location of the warming, its evolution and its ultimate strength. By grouping the common developmental features of the events, the team was able to identify four types of El Niño, each with distinct onset and strengthening patterns. Looking across time, they found a decided shift in behavior since the late 1970鈥檚: all events beginning in the eastern Pacific occurred prior to that time, while all events originating in the western-central Pacific happened since then. They also found that four of five identified extreme El Niño events formed after 1970.

Climate change may increase extreme El Niño events

Wang and his co-authors focused on the factors that seemed to be controlling these shifts, including increased sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool and the easterly winds in the central Pacific. They found that with continued global warming, those factors may lead to a continued increase in frequency in extreme El Niño events.

“Simulations with global climate models suggest that if the observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent extreme El Niño events will induce profound socioeconomic consequences,” reports Wang.

Past strong El Niño events have caused severe droughts in the western Pacific Islands and Australia, leading to extensive wildfires and famine, while dangerous flooding from excessive rainfall has plagued northern coasts of South America. Warm ocean temperatures associated with the events have also generated strongly negative effects on fisheries and coral reefs, globally.

In Hawaiʻi, El Niño causes some severe variations in rainfall, hurricane activity, air and sea-surface temperatures, and even in sea levels.

The classification system derived in this study provides an important tool for improvement in climate modeling of El Niño and La Niña events.

Wang鈥檚 research group plans to explore further how this work may help improve predictions of future El Niño events. A better understanding of how such events may change over time will help adaptation efforts to mitigate their economic, environmental and societal impacts.

The region known as the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands is no stranger to variable weather and climate. One of its dominant weather influencers is the El Ni帽o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an alternating pattern of abnormally warm and cool ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. ENSO can cause drought-like conditions in the southwest Pacific that persist for 3–4 seasons, as well as frequent cyclones and storms.

Given the region’s regular bombardment of extreme events, U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands decision-makers need accurate predictions from climate models. However, modeling errors can limit the reliability of forecasts.

Now, a researcher from the at the is leading a project to identify those errors. Supported by a $508,000 grant from the NOAA Research Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program, Senior Researcher and his team will develop tools, known as diagnostics, to pinpoint where and how errors begin, to help scientists determine how to improve their models.

“Identifying and improving processes in climate models that lead to reliable forecasts of droughts and tropical storms well in advance will allow policy makers ample time to plan and mitigate situations during extreme events,” said Annamalai. “These events have significant impacts on water resources and agriculture, defense-related operations, forest fires, air traffic and more.”

Just like a doctor diagnosing why a patient is feeling unwell, these tools will help climate modelers determine why their models are not performing well.

“Our diagnostics will be user accessible, flexible and adaptable such that they can be transitioned to any group of evaluations during model development,” said Annamalai.

Annamalai’s research will build on results from his MAPP-funded project that is ending this year. That project focused on understanding processes that shape unusual ENSO-related precipitation during the winter season, using diagnostics.

He and his team found that model errors in predicting abnormal precipitation are strongly tied to the models’ ability to represent how moisture is distributed in a certain part of the atmosphere and how the interaction between radiation and clouds are represented. This new project’s diagnostics will address those model errors in representing moisture, clouds and their interaction with radiation in the atmosphere.

Specific project outcomes will include a set of metrics that will help scientists quantify how accurately their models represent ENSO-related impacts and identify sources of model errors that reveal deficiencies to help inform model improvement decisions.

Project collaborators include Yi Ming, head of the Atmospheric Physics and Climate Group at NOAA‘s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Richard Neale, project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research; and Gill Martin, science manager at the United Kingdom Met Office, Hadley Center.

—By Rachel Lentz

The intensity and frequency of strong tropical cyclones, as well as cyclone landfalls, have increased in recent decades in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, raising speculation about the root cause of the surge in destructive Category 4 and 5 storms.

Now atmospheric researchers at the ‘s (IPRC) have published showing a strong connection between sea surface temperature patterns associated with the Global Warming Hiatus phenomenon and changes in cyclone activity over the northwest Pacific Ocean, particularly increasing intensities in coastal regions of East Asia.

Climate change has been marked by a persistent, if uneven, increase in global temperatures through time.

Around the turn of the century, 1998-2012, the rate of temperature increase apparently slowed, and has since been labeled the Global Warming Hiatus. During this period, while the Indian and tropical north Atlantic Oceans warmed, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean experienced La Ni帽a-like cooling.

La Ni帽a is usually characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, pushing cyclone generation westward.

More Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones

IPRC researchers , Jiuwei Zhao and Ruifen Zhan found that, during the hiatus, dominant equatorial easterly winds caused cyclonic (counter-clockwise) circulation in the northwestern region of the Pacific Ocean, favoring the formation and intensification of cyclones there. These conditions also pushed more storms westward into the coastline of East Asia, generating increased landfall frequency of these intense storms.

Interestingly, in the southeast region of the northwest Pacific, local atmospheric circulation was the opposite, anti-cyclonic (clockwise), inhibiting cyclone generation and intensification in that region.

In conjunction with these wind patterns, IPRC researchers established a strong correlation between areas of warmer sea surface temperatures and intense cyclone occurrence in the northwest Pacific Ocean. This supports the conclusion that the higher frequency of greater intensity cyclones over the last few decades is closely tied to the atmospheric circulation patterns and sea surface temperature distribution induced by the hiatus.

“Most previous studies have suggested that, with general global warming, the numbers of tropical cyclones over the northwest Pacific will decrease. Instead, over the last couple decades, more tropical cyclones formed and intensified over the far northwest Pacific,” explained Wang. “Our study shows this was due to increased local sea surface temperatures and reduced vertical wind shear associated with the hiatus conditions.”

Wang and his co-authors emphasize their results also underline the importance of acknowledging that there are swings between warmer and cooler phases due to natural climate variability, even within an overall warming climate.

—By Rachel Lentz

New estimates derived from an international effort that includes researchers predict that many low-lying atoll islands throughout the Pacific and beyond may become uninhabitable by mid-century. The combination of rising sea levels and wave-driven flooding will cause frequent damage to infrastructure and will irreversibly contaminate island freshwater resources by 2030-2060, according to a .

Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 糖心Vlog官方‘s (IPRC) and other entities improved estimates of atoll habitability by considering not just sea level rise, but also the effects of wave activity that flood low-lying islands with elevations of less than two meters.

Previous studies have considered only the hazard from the rise in average sea level gradually inundating the atolls and estimated that the islands would still be livable until 2100 or later. This study, however, focusing on Roi-Namur Island of Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, includes the additional effects of waves, which begin to have serious consequences far sooner.

With multi-meter-high waves riding a higher average sea level, active flooding can occur more frequently as seawater breaches coastal berms, damaging coastal infrastructure and soaking into the shallow freshwater lens, contaminating the limited aquifer. Subsequent rainfall can replenish the freshwater of the aquifer over time, but if a second flooding event occurs too soon, salinity levels in the aquifer will remain too high for safe drinking.

“The tipping point when potable groundwater on the majority of atoll islands will be unavailable is projected to be reached no later than the middle of the 21st century,” said Curt Storlazzi, USGS geologist and lead author of the new report.

Accurate climate models for the area were key to establishing this timeline. of IPRC and of the evaluated 41 global climate models for those that best simulated recent conditions and trends (precipitation, sea surface temperatures, wind variability, etc.) in the Pacific and Indian ocean regions. From this pool, they selected five models that best captured past patterns and used them to project future conditions, particularly storm activity, each decade until 2100.

“The worldwide teamwork is the beauty of this project, with all the different modeling aspects—climate, wave dynamics, groundwater hydrology—all brought together so smoothly and efficiently,” said Annamalai. He emphasized that the wave-driven flooding, compounding sea level rise, is the key to this new story, as the wave hazard “adds flame to the fire.”

Storlazzi notes that their results are applicable to low-lying islands throughout the Pacific and beyond, underlying the urgency to evaluate which islands are most vulnerable and to begin exploring possible political and engineering solutions. Annamalai plans to expand on this work by applying the same techniques to island groups in the Indian Ocean (the Seychelles and the Maldives) where communities are already suffering greatly from increased cyclone activity.

—By Rachel Lentz

by climate modelers and at the (IPRC) investigated the possibility of using historical observations after large equatorial volcanic eruptions to learn about the properties of the winds in the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere 10–30 miles above Earth’s surface.

Detailed tracking of stratospheric winds in the tropics has only been possible since regular weather balloon soundings began at some near-equatorial stations in the early 1950s. One particularly predictable pattern that has emerged is in the winds along the equator, which show regular swings in the prevailing wind direction from easterlies to westerlies and back, roughly every couple of years (28 months on average).

This pattern, called the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), , breaking a routine that had lasted for at least 27 cycles. The disruption in the predictability of the QBO pattern prompted many to consider how to understand the QBO better in order to predict when the reliable pattern may change again and affect the European winter weather patterns that follow it.

Explosive volcanic eruptions force particles into the stratosphere that move with the prevailing winds and affect how light passes through the atmosphere. By examining the progressive onset and character around the world of colorful sunsets generated by volcanic eruptions, scientists can calculate factors like direction, speed and jet center position of the upper atmosphere winds at the time.

Hamilton and Sakazaki compiled historical accounts of the effects noted around the world after the eruptions of Krakatoa (1883), Saint Vincent and Mount Pelee (1902), and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The most notable effects, commonly, were brilliant sunsets or sun haloes due to the volcanic aerosols lofted high into the atmosphere.

“Any actual pre-1953 wind observations are very valuable as contributors to reconstructing the QBO record,” said Hamilton. “We want to show that observations of the effects of volcanic aerosols can provide credible estimates of the equatorial stratospheric wind at the time (of the eruption).”

For more info, see the .

—By Rachel Lentz

The Atlantic hurricane season so far has seen a rash of historic extremes, between Harvey dropping up to 50 inches of rain, Irma generating talk of whether to add a category 6 to the intensity scale and Maria strengthening from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in just two days. This recent activity has generated much speculation about the role of climate change in the progression of these and future storms.

, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补鈥檚 , guided a examining the question: What is the impact of ocean warming on the size and destructiveness of tropical cyclones? The study concluded that with warmer sea surface temperatures, tropical cyclones become not only stronger, with higher maximum wind speeds, but also larger, with gale-force winds covering a greater area.

Previous studies of climate change effects on tropical cyclones only considered storm intensity changes (i.e. wind speed), assuming that storm size would remain the same. However, Li鈥檚 group wanted to examine how much cyclone size might be affected by increasing water temperatures, since potential destructiveness is greatly increased as storm size increases. Li supervised the work by Yuan Sun of the National University of Defense Technology in Nanjing, China.

The strengthened tropical cyclone destructive potential poses a heightened threat to human society as well as terrestrial and marine ecosystems.
—Tim Li

Using both long-term climate simulations and short-term, high-resolution simulations of different cases, the group found that for every degree Celsius increase of sea surface temperature, the size-dependent destructive potential of typhoons in the western North Pacific and hurricanes in the North Atlantic can increase by 340 percent and 150 percent, respectively. The implication is that future storms in both ocean basins could become dramatically more destructive if ocean warming continues unabated. Texas, Florida and many Caribbean islands have recently had a taste of this elevated destructiveness, first-hand.

“We were a little surprised by the result, but it is physically understandable,“ Li said. ”The strengthened tropical cyclone destructive potential poses a heightened threat to human society as well as terrestrial and marine ecosystems.”

Li did note that the results might be model-dependent, so further modeling efforts are needed to confirm the results. For future research, the group plans to incorporate other natural forces and projected future sea surface temperature patterns derived by different modeling centers around the world.

—By Rachel Lentz

Daydreams of the tropical paradise of Hawaiʻi rarely include snow in the imagery, but nearly every year, a beautiful white blanket covers the highest peaks in the state for at least a few days. However, systematic observations of snowfall and the snow cover dimensions on Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa are practically nonexistent. A group of climate modelers led by Chunxi Zhang from the at the used satellite images to quantify recent snow cover distributions patterns. They developed a regional climate model to simulate the present-day snowfalls and then to project future Hawaiian snowfalls. Their results indicate that the two volcano summits are typically snow-covered at least 20 days each winter, on average, but that the snow cover will nearly disappear by the end of the century.

To evaluate the current situation, Zhang and his colleagues examined surface composition data retrieved from satellite imagery of Hawaiʻi Island from 2000 to 2015 to construct a daily index of snow cover. They used this data compilation to evaluate the quality of their regional atmospheric climate model, based on global climate projections that included several scenarios of anticipated climate change. Zhang then ran simulations representative of the end of the 21st century, assuming a moderate business-as-usual scenario for greenhouse gas emissions projections, to establish how long Hawaiʻi might enjoy its occasional glimpses of white-topped mountains.

“We recognized that Hawaiian snow has an aesthetic and recreational value, as well as a cultural significance, for residents and visitors,” explained Zhang. “So, we decided to examine just what the implications of future climate change would be for future snowfall in Hawaiʻi.” Unfortunately, the projections suggest that future average winter snowfall will be ten times less than present day amounts, virtually erasing all snow cover.

The findings were not a total surprise, with future projections showing that even with moderate climate warming, air temperatures over the higher altitudes increase even more than at sea level, and that, on average, fewer winter storm systems will impact the state. However, the group’s new method for establishing the current snow cover on these Hawaiian mountains provides another avenue for monitoring the progression of climate change in the region. Ultimately, this study also illustrates the benefits of the recent trend in model downscaling, highlighting the regional and local effects of global climate change.

—By Rachel Lentz